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Some low risk Mutual Funds that deliver 9 – 10% yearly backtested 10 to 15 years

Im sorry if this idea is not sexy enough for some but making a solid 9 – 10% yearly (a 5% to 6% dividend plus appreciation) is good in my books.  Your money is doubling in 7 years which is not bad http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72).

These 2 mutual funds are balanced funds and with no further ado here they are:

1) http://funds.ci.com/GeneratePDF.aspx?FSID=6803&Language=en which over the last 10 years has returned 9.85% annually as of March 4 2015 as found here http://funds.ci.com/Default.aspx?tab=LongTerm
2
http://funds.ci.com/GeneratePDF.aspx?FSID=686&Language=en this fund has returned 10.82% annually over 15 years as found http://funds.ci.com/Default.aspx?tab=LongTerm

As a note these funds may say “High Income” but do not confuse this with “High Yield Bonds” they do not have large exposure to that asset class.

These 2 funds pay a monthly dividend in the 5% to 6% range as they have exposure to high yielding value stocks, basically huge companies that pay generous dividends.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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A video about a Special Situations trade with 30% automatic upside but has some downsides

This trade is not in the opinion of the management/owner of this Blog TheValueSwan.com .

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A story about the author of this blog – How The Internet Has Leveled Business Forever

Prior to the early 1990s the investing business and investing in companies took a lot of work and mostly depended on connections.  Now that there is the Internet we can invest in the stock market easily, and knowledgeably, or we can invest in private companies or people from the developed world to the developing world with ease.

I got my start investing in the stock market in 2002 with the corporate Enron/Tyco scandals, I invested in Harley Davidson.  I did some research and the 100 year anniversary of Harley Davidson was coming up so I knew they would have a good year.  All this research was conducted through Google, the Harley Davidson website and quarterly/annual reports.  This investment did turn me a 30 – 40% gain if I remember correctly in a year or 2 period.  At this time the power of the Internet and specifically Google was not widely known.  Getting information that was powerful, reliable and pertinent was hard to come by before Google’s link popularity algorithm was developed.  Altavista, Excite, Yahoo and Netscape just did not reliably categorize there listings that well and this allowed an opening in Google.  You can garner this story in a few ways but the most important way is, brands or companies that you usually use can be very good to invest in if they go public.  It happened that in 2004 |Google went public and it returned 1000% in a 10 year period.  I did allocate $10,000 US to this investment but I thought the $30 billion valuation was a bit to expensive, a mistake I regret.   Though I had much success with my money at that time so it all evened out.  Now because I invest a lot more actively in public companies I run a blog where I try to help people at www.thevalueswan.com .  Back to the story you can also garner that superior brands make for good investments.  Warren Buffett who had lots of council from his partner Charlie Munger who gave him this idea once said “I prefer to invest in great brands at reasonable prices rather than good brands at great prices.”  This investment technique did return Charlie Munger (a billionaire) a 19.7% return over the life of his investment partnership before he met Warren Buffett.  Warren Buffett is now sporting a 20%ish yearly lifetime record over his investment career.  I do not only invest in public companies, I like to find brands and especially people to make them into solid businesses.

The Internet has allowed me to do this because of the flattening of the geographic curve I would like to say.  I started investing in people and brands in 2003 and has led me to great success even though it can be a disheartening experience at times.  Finding people on forums or through mutual interests or acquaintances can be a liberating experience that can bring forth fruitful returns.  Ive done it many times its just a matter of how you structure your arrangement.  Always get contracts that do not have to be so detailed but that prove ownership and have a track record.  For a time I did not do it for saddening results but Karma is a bitch and it always comes back.  Ive worked with people from various parts of the world and its exciting especially if you are in a 1st world county and can invest in a 2nd or 3rd world country.  Your money can go a lot farther but it can be risky and it can still be done even today in 2015.

That sums up a little adventure into the workings of what can be accomplished with the power of the Internet.  If you ever want to read some good investment tidbits, or rather ideas that can accomplish fruitful returns you can go to my blog at www.thevalueswan.com

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Sessions on Valuation, How do you really Value a Company? NYU Stern School Of Business

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Burger King same store sales up 3% yoy, Tim Hortons up 4% yoy – Owner – Restaurant Brands International – Up 7% today

Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Owner of Tim Hortons and Burger King just released its full year and 4th quater report here http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1488097/restaurant-brands-international-reports-full-year-and-fourth-quarter-2014-results and the stock has since rocked up 7% as of 11AM EST February 17 2015.  The stock has since rocketed up because of Burger King same store sales up 3% yoy, Tim Hortons up 4% yoy which is phenomenal.

Some analysts have been saying that QSR is going to be the best performing stock in the TSE this year and I agree with that assessment.

Here are the highlights to the full year and 4th quarter report

Full Year 2014 Highlights:

  • Tim Hortons (TH) comparable sales increased 3.1% and Burger King (BK) comparable sales increased 2.1%
  • Delivered 186 net restaurant growth (NRG) at TH and 705 NRG at BK
  • System-wide sales grew 6.6% at TH and 6.8% at BK in constant currency
  • TH Adjusted EBITDA grew 10.5% on an organic basis to $816 million
  • BK Adjusted EBITDA grew 11.5% on an organic basis to $726 million
  • Paid Burger King Worldwide Inc. dividends of $0.30 per share or approximately $106 million

Fourth Quarter 2014 Highlights:

  • TH comparable sales increased 4.1% and BK comparable sales increased 3.0%
  • Delivered 81 NRG at TH and 412 NRG at BK
  • System-wide sales grew 7.4% at TH and 7.7% at BK in constant currency
  • TH Adjusted EBITDA grew 10.2% on an organic basis to $209 million
  • BK Adjusted EBITDA grew 8.8% on an organic basis to $189 million

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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An investment for the decade Fairfax India Holdings – (FIH.U) going up possibly 10x in 10 years.

The guy that runs this is named Prem Watsa and is nicknamed the “Warren Buffett of Canada” as he has made consistantely great investments since near the beginning of his career at in 1985. Even in the 1 year chart for Fairfax Financial Holdings, the company is up 50%+ year over year.

He has recently introduced (about a week or 2 old) a fund which is essentially a stock/etf/mutual fund of India named Fairfax India Holdings () . Basically this fund solely invests in India a market where the average salary is $4000 US a year (Rougly $330 a month ). The East Indian market has a lot of room to grow and could potential go nuclear (go huge fast) because of President Modi.

President Modi has offered a huge amount of reform and will most likely get his reforms done as he has a huge majority. He has awarded people roles in his government based on merit and not political connections.

The savings rate in India is only 33% which is not that high for a developing 2nd world economy as found here but it is still pretty high and a lot higher than 1st world countries at around 1 – 15%.

Now back to Fairfax India Holdings. Presently they released at $1 billion market cap and will be investing in private as well as public companies, so they will buy parts or all of a company or they will buy securities like stocks or bonds.

It is very hard to lose money in India at the moment other than if its Fraud on the part of a partner. If you take a look at Mutual Funds such as Birla Sun Life ’95 Fund and Birla Sun Life Tax Relief ’96 both have 25%+ yearly returns since there inception in 1995 and 1996. Which means you could have made 80 to 180 times your money since inception.

Right now there is not much information on Fairfax India Holdings as it is extremely new and sometimes companies dont release good documentation till the 1st quarter of operations is done but granted that its run by Prem Watsa the man who runs Fairfax Financial Holdings and was Chairman and CEO since its inception.

Prem Watsa does have a CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst designation) which is the hardest designation to get in the financial field as hard as getting a Ph.D in Finance and he is only 64 years old. Furthermore he is worth $1.3 billion as he owns 10% of Fairfax Financial Holdings a $13 billion dollar corporation.

You will note that Fairfax Financial Holdings bought Blackberry in 2013 for $4.7 billion dollars. We will have to see if they made good money on this deal in the coming years but a stock appreciation of 52% year over year is pretty good.

We will have to wait and see if Fairfax India Holdings can make substantial returns much like how Fairfax Financial Holdings has, I believe it will and am invested.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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Cryptohedge.io – CFSassets – CFSgold – Market Making Bots – 20% to 50% yearly return? Maybe – Black Swan proof? Maybe

The bitshares ecosystem is on fire with the announcement that the development of a new DAC (Decentralized Autonomous Corporation) + Bitassets (Assets under the Bitshares SuperDAC/Brand), ie Cryptohedge.io and CFSassets is coming online.

Lets cut to the skinny, what is going on?  Basically Cryptohedge.io is releasing market making bots and is going to back it up with the asset of bitshares/bitgold and Gold Futures (the last one having counterparty risk)  Now dont get worried just yet about Gold futures having counterparty risk, it is a highly liquid and a multi-multi billion dollar market as you can see here http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold.html which shows a market of over 100,000 traded in the day (each contract found here http://futures.tradingcharts.com/specs/ is 100 ounces or roughly $120,000 US Dollars per contract which comes to over $12 billion dollars traded in the day (roughly $20 billion and just in the CME Group but whose counting really).

Now the negatives out of the way, is this actually a good investment?  Most likely yes because they are performing arbitrage in a market that has no real competition as of yet.  Furthermore, as long as there is a market they will be able to skim off a little bit to constantly increase there NAV (Net Asset Value).

How good can these bot/arbitrage mechanisms be in terms of profitability?  Well basically the best market making or arbitrage firm in the world which uses the power of mathematics and physics is https://www.rentec.com/Home.action?index=true .  The guy that started it James Simon is worth $14 billion dollars and is known as the “Quant King,” he really is.  With returns after commissions over 35% – 40% a year meaning hes making 45% – 55% a year.  It is true he is not just an arbitrager and that he uses the power of his mathematics University Ph.D teaching degree as well as trend following, special situations, and most likely high frequency trading (he is most likely doing this  in his alphabet soup of technique.)

Anyways sorry for getting off topic but if they dont get hit by a black swan and if the market for bitgold/bitcoingold/goldfuturesgold is big enough and more competitors dont come in (there is probably room for 2 – 4 big firms in the future).  We could see some serious gains, upwards of 20% a year.  Truth be told they may have a few 100 – 200% years and I may be wrong and every year for 10 years they could make 75%+ bringing there asset into the multi billions, much like Renaissance Technologies LLC $25 billion under management.   These guys could do it too, it will come down to there ability.  We will have to wait and see.

I will keep you updated with developments and you can follow me below on twitter or like my page on facebook to keep updated

You can read the Prospectus for CFSgold here http://cryptohedge.io/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Prospectus.pdf

 This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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BYD Company is the Chinese Tesla

Would you invest along side the 3rd Richest man in the world, Warren Buffett, if you could?

Do you feel bad missing the 1000% run-up of Tesla Motors (https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATSLA&ei=b8_NVPm3CqK1iAKimoD4Cg )?

Well there is a company in China, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, that you could invest in that Warren Buffett owns 10%.  The company is BYD Company symbol 1211 .

This company is an electric car maker that has seen its shares go in 2005 at $12 hong kong dollars to 2007 $70 hong kong dollars then it collapsed because of the 2008 crisis to $8 hong kong dollars then to $85 in 2009 and now is back to $28.

The wild ride took place because of a subsidy that the Chinese government removed for electric cars.

This BYD Company is the worlds biggest electic bus maker and one of the worlds biggest battery makers so it is diversified.It is also producing many different electric cars while Tesla is just producing 1 electric car type.  BYD is definitely ahead of the game.  Furthermore, it is getting into the energy storage business.  Notwithstanding, the company is vertically integrated and controls even the Lithium mines for its batteries.

One company named Longboard with CEO Cole Wilcox predicted that Tesla would hit $200 a share and it did.  They are now predicting BYD to go to $100 a share in 18 months from the $28 it is right now.  It is possible but even if it goes to $50 a person would be very happy.

Lastly BYD’s CEO Wang Chuanfu is to China as Elon Musk is to the US.  Wang Chaunfu is absolutely incredible and has built an incredibly strong company.

As of the writing of this article the company has a small 0.22% dividend.

As the Chinese are transitioning over to a consumer based economy that is trying to be more and more “Green” this electric car company will gain steam.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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Moody’s Cuts Russia Debt to Baa3 – Russia pays government interest on debt at 11% of GDP – NOT BAD

rs-map

Is there really a worry the government of Russia is going to go bankrupt when as of 2013 Government debt took up 7.9% of GDP as found at CIA Factbook: Russia .  Most statistics are taken from CIA Factbook unless are opinions.

My central view is that Russian government debt is a steal (good buy) if you can get it.

This was mostly a political move to crush Russia, Moodys is a government licensed rating agency, essentially a monopoly with just 2 other agencies.

Unemployment in the country as of 2013 was 5.8% and incomes were $18,000 US a year when just in 2000 incomes were as low as $4,000 US a year, a huge improvement.

The government has a small government deficit as of 2013 and this year may have a significantly higher one at $30 billion to $100 billion.  But they have reserves of $400 billion and gross national savings of 28% which is good.

Russia also has 80 billion barrels of oil which is an estimate and is probably in the range of 500 billion to 2 trillion barrels because they most likely have oil sands or shale oil like the US and Canada, Russia is a country that is mostly unexplored and very sparse with only a population of 142 million with a land area of 17 million sq kilometers.   The amount of land is mind blasting and should be taken as a significant advantage.   Putin really did not need the warm water port and should just focus on the Arctic and making money not cold war mentalities of defeating the evil America, its just not that important.  Russia is a corporation now, it is not a dictatorship.

If they have 80 billion barrels of oil it means they have $3 trillion dollars of wealth, if they have 2 trillion which I believe they do, they have roughly $90 trillion in value there, thats trillion with a T.  All in US dollars.

Also as a note because of the corruption in Russian companies trade at PEs (Price to Earnings Ratios) at less than 5, Gazprom is trading at a PE of 3 which is 3 years earnings.   When the war in Ukraine is over and everything goes back to normal for a reasonable period and corruption is wiped clean, you could see Gazprom trading at a PE of 10 or higher meaning Gazprom is undervalued by 300% right now.

Also as a note Gazprom is probably a great investment with a 6.67% dividend which I will look at (Gazprom the stock) in a later article.  Remember it is 50.01% owned and controlled by the government, meaning it wont be going bankrupt anytime soon.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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The secret in making an altcoin as successful as Paypal.com

Its very simple.

It takes 1 sentence “Make email an address for sending money with your coin and dont have it on the blockchain

Now having the email address as an address is what is important whether it is on the blockchain or not.  The addresses could be jumbled into encryption so people are not worried about who is watching who.

If you were to do this you would get instant reconizability with the wide majority of people.  Having crypto as some secretive land is what is stopping Bitshares, Stellar, Bitcoin, and all 500+ rest from reaching a total market cap of $100 billion dollars, 30x more then what it is today, as found here http://www.coinmarketcap.com/ .

We need Crypto Currency to go mainstream that is the only way the 2nd comers who did not get into Bitcoin in the first 3 years but which are in other Crypto Currencies will make any money or really become rich.

It is true that Paypal is just a payment gateway but it is worth billions and any currency is really a gateway to buying things. Someone who created this would just be the first to take the address level to the next level.

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