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Im sorry the big inflation/revaluation wont be in North America

The big inflation will be in the emerging markets like China when a revaluation happens due to them being as competitive as North America. It wont even be an inflation but a revaluation.

They will be caught in technology and housing ownership will be widespread. Soon they will have their own Boeing. After that they will one day have their own shipping portals.

Teleportation will most likely happen first in China. Yes this is far away (40 or 50 years) but it is not out of the question.

They will have the AI, the nanotechnology. America is great but a lot of the people do not care about education and rather play video games. It is true that America does have the most wealth and best businesses right now. However China’s 2025 plan will most likely come to fruitation.

What is going to happen is a sustained bull market in emerging markets after this hurray in America which may last 3 months to 3 years. Volatility may be high but America does have the best businesses and there is tons of opportunity in North America.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com .This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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The Value of Mutual Funds/ETFs In a Portfolio

The Value of Mutual Funds/ETFs In a Portfolio

Warren Buffett has said that the person who does not want to worry about the stock market should be 90% in Index ETFs to the United States Stock Market (Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Russell) and 10% in short dated T-bills (Treasuries).

This advice has value in that because of inflation, technology, productivity and population growth, the stock market goes up from 15 year to 15 year cycles. This means if you buy at the top (ie 2000) you would still make money by 2015.

Not only do Index ETFs have value but ETFs around a certain sector like Technology, Industrials, Real Estate, Emerging Markets, or Country specific ETF. In some senses these are sector specific index ETFs. Buying into these requires a bit more skill in picking waves or trends. Furthermore these types of ETFs have greater value in higher dividends or capital appreciation than broad Index ETFs that Warren Buffett talks about.

Lastly Mutual Funds can be good if you know how to value them. This basically means looking at long term backdated trends and seeing how the managers of the Mutual Funds stack up compared to their benchmarks or averages. In reality though most managers of Mutual Funds only mimic the return of the similar ETF even though their fees are usually 5x – 10x higher. However, if you pick the magic man, you can see some higher return in a specific mutual fund.

In a portfolio never forget to buy bond like Mutual Funds/ETFs because they will give the ying to the yang of equities in the portfolio. Balance is important.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com .This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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How to value the stock market

How to value the stock market

You can value the stock market in different ways.

1) The most common way is through Price to Earnings (P/E) multiples. Right now the market is being valued around 22 which is historically high for the stock market.

2) However if you look at the stock market in yield terms. Right now United States Treasuries are near historic lows. (2 year, 5 year, 10 year, 30 year). They are all low meaning the value of investing riskless capital is being constrained. There are over 10 trillion USD in government bonds (in Europe not the United States) that pay a negative interest rate. Essentially you are paying to hold onto many government bonds.

This means people are looking to the stock market or other investment vehicles to gain yield/interest/dividends.

3) Also you can look at the stock market in comparison to the size of the economy. Right now the stock market valuation is around 30 Trillion USD and the GDP is around 20 Trillion USD (in the United States). This measure is most widely used by Warren Buffett and his adherents.

These are 3 ways of valuing the stock market. I hope you have gained some insight that can help you on your journey.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com .This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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Match (MTCH) analysis – Up 400% since December 2015

Since our time talking about Match (MTCH) it has went from $13.91 a share to $56 USD a share.  That is over 4x (400%) since December 23, 2015.

It is now a $15 Billion USD business and therefore the big gains are gone.  If you listened to us back in 2015, selling half your position or 3/4ths may be a good option.  Takes out a chunk of profits and keeps you in if you are trying to go for another double.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com .This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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Can you make 500% on Evolus (EOLS) the value Botox!

On Friday of last week Evolus drug Jeuveau gained approval from the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) of the United States of America.

This drug will for sure be the cheaper rival of Allergan’s Botox.

What does Jeuveau do? It removes wrinkle lines on the forehead and frown wrinkles. This is significant as Baby Boomers (people who are in or going to be retiring) try to retain a youthful look. No one wants to age.

I believe Allergan is in the process of suing Evolus to keep the drug off the market. However, they may not win as it has been approved and there is no patent on Botox, it is just trademarked the name I believe.

If this drug catches on due to being the cheaper alternative, we are talking about at least a $5 billion USD company which would be 800% gain from here. Right now Botox contributes over $3.2 billion USD in revenue to Allergan in 2017. Allergan is a $45 billion USD business and just in 2015 Allergan had a $100 billion USD valuation.

Right now the company is going for $26 USD a share.  They have to change their business from drug exploration and development to a pharmaceutical company that has a sales force and distribution.

I have never invested in a pharmaceutical company and we will see how this develops over the next few years.

We will see where this goes but it definitely is positive for Evolus. Lets see where this goes.

You can find more articles about investing and the stock market over here http://www.thevalueswan.com

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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Some good long term ETFs

There are several low cost (in terms of yearly fees) exchange traded funds (ETFs, which are like low cost mutual funds).  That may be good over the long term and/or a recession.  Remember averaging in or waiting for low time prices is best.

1) Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ?p=QQQ

It is the top 100 technology (NASDAQ) stocks.  This is the most risky one of them all but I believe in 40 years all companies will be technology companies.  So the best companies that are now technology based will just become a bigger portion of the integrated global or US economy.

2) Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VIG?p=VIG

It invests in companies where the price of the share goes up because the dividends go up.

3) Vanguard US Dividend Appreciation ETF (VGG.TO)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VGG.TO?p=VGG.TO

This is also very neat as the payouts constantly increase.4) ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (NOBL)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOBL?p=NOBL
It takes companies that have increased their dividend for at least 25 years in a row.  So every year the companies in the ETF (index) increase their dividend each year and have been doing it for at least 25 years straight.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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We are entering a more turbulent time in the stock market

The stock market is on sale right now but it can get cheaper in terms of P/Es (Price to earnings).  If your averaging into positions each month that is always best.  It is possible to predict a crisis but it takes a lot of up to date as well as historical knowledge.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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My Mutual Fund Commentary Only Returned 3% and 4% Yearly

It is true the commentary 2 years ago on  http://thevalueswan.com/some-low-risk-mutual-funds-that-deliver-9-10-yearly-backtested-10-to-15-years/ has only returned 3% and 4% yearly which is not the best but it is a secure gain backed by bonds and income producing stocks.

I am deeply sorry for not giving the best commentary.  The moral of the story, even backtesting 10 or 15 years is bullshit.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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Prumo Logistica being bought out at R$10.50 on the market for R$8.15 right now

Hello everyone,

The people who want to buy the company are trying their hardest to buy it.

We hereby call the holders of free float shares of PRUMO LOGÍSTICA S.A. (“Company”) to convene at the Special Free Float Shareholders Meeting (“Special Meeting”), to be held on February 24, 2017, at 10 a.m., at the Company’s headquarters, located at Rua do Russel, n° 804, 5th floor, Glória, City of Rio de Janeiro, State of Rio de Janeiro, to discuss and resolve on the following matters of the Agenda:

(i) a new valuation to determine the Company’s shares’ value for the purpose of the public offer for the acquisition of the outstanding shares issued
by the Company for the withdrawal from the Novo Mercado Special Corporate
(ii) to engage a valuation firm,
the (ii) means they want to get a higher price

http://prumo.riweb.com.br/Download.aspx?Arquivo=yDxPW6tOHz1FVoU6ArSfgg==

The (ii) means they want to get a higher price

 Its a illiquid market though, watch how you get shares.  Its in USD so convert R$8.15 into usd through google USD$2.59 and put a limit USD$2.59 see if you will get shares.

This is where you buy it from PRMLY https://www.google.com/finance?q=OTCMKTS%3APRMLY&ei=0neRWLntDYaa2AbhtY_gAQ

I hope you guys make money like how my family will.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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2016 Year in Review – 17.5% yearly return achieved over 2 years

Sorry for not posting all of 2016, I wanted to let the stocks get some time to ferment/brew.  Now we can see what type of results I have been getting over 2016 and since inception.  I have actually done pretty well, here are the results.

Match Group (MTCH) this stock was recommended on December 23, 2015 at $13.91 USD now it is at $18.03 USD for a gain of 29.6%.

BYD Company (HGK: 1211) this stock was recommended on February 1, 2015 at $28 HKD (Hong Kong Dollars), now it is at $42.60 HKD which translates into a gain of 52.1% roughly for a 2 year period.

 Seritage Growth Properties (SRG) this stock was recommended on December 11, 2015 at $41 USD and is now at $42.13 USD.  This stock has a 2.37% dividend which turns into a 5% gain including dividend.

First Mining Finance (CVE:FF) this stock was recommended July 6, 2015 at $0.51 CDN (Canadian Dollars).  It is now going for $0.85 CDN for a gain in a year and a half of 66.7%

Vale SA (VALE) was recommended on May 2, 2015 for $8 USD and is now at $8 USD for a gain of 0%.  This stock went through a very bumpy ride though.  It was down as much as 75% and is now even.

Market Vectors Russia (RSX) this stock was recommended on April 3 2015 at $18.84 USD and is now at $21.52 USD.  There was a 3.47% dividend in 2015 and a very low 0.02% dividend in 2016 which brings the return since recommendation at 17.7%.

Restaurant Brands International (TSE:QSR) was recommended on February 17, 2015 at $42.15 and is now at $65.48.  It also has a 1.38% dividend.  This brings the almost 2 year investment rate of return to 57%+.

Fairfax India Holdings (TSE:FIH.U) was recommended on February 14, 2015 at $10.44 USD and is now $11.55 USD.  This brings the almost 2 year rate of return to 10.6%.

A.P. Moller – Maersk (OTC: AMKBY) was recommended on January 3, 2015 at $10.14 USD.  This stock is now at $8.63 USD.  Furthermore A.P. Moller Maersk over the 2 years has had a combined two $1.67 USD dividends.  This puts the 2 year rate of return at 1.5%.

In conclusion my 9 stock recommendations have done pretty well at 17.5% annual rate of return 35% in total in 2 years.  I believe the United States, Canadian and World stock markets will perform reasonably well in 2017, we will see how it goes really.  I am not getting out of these recommendations yet.  They do have some room for further growth.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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