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Vale (VALE) The Brazilian Huge Iron Ore Producer is at 80% off

Vale https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AVALE&ei=CzlFVemqHoSXiQKt74DIAw was trading 10 years ago at $60 USD  dollars, now its trading at $8 USD .  It lost $1.6 billion last quarter (Adjusted earnings per share of 61 cents) but it is essentially a government company.  Iron ore is trading at $56 USD dollars per dry metric ton as of March 2015 while it was trading at $100 USD per dry metric ton in March of 2014.  This is a significant downtrend but in 2005 it was trading at $33 so its only up 66% in the last 10 years.

Furthermore Vale is going to increase production from 350 million tons to 450 million tons in the next several years.  Right now last quarter it produced Q1 2015 it produced 74.5 million metric tons of Iron ore, its most ever.

This is an expanding company that was worth $200 billion 10 years ago and is now worth $37 billion in 2015, even though they have significantly increased production.

Furthermore Vale has a has a 4.81% dividend that may be cut but is still pretty spiffy.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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How to develop your best Investment Ideas – 2 minutes long

 

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(RSX) Market Vectors Russia ETF – Up 14% in 2 months

Previously I said investing in Russian Bonds was a good idea.  It turned out to be right as Russian bond yields have come down considerably as you can see here http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/government-bond-yield

Russian businesses are highly undervalued at 1 – 3 times earnings (PE, Price/Earnings Ratio).  Meaning your buying businesses at 80 – 90% off based on that metric.  There is reasons for this such as the fact that Russia is a highly corrupt place but still India is corrupt and businesses are fairly valued.  Its moreso the reason because of the fact that Russians in some sense are Eur-Asians.   Russia is both in Europe and Asia at the same time, but who knows what im talking about on this front im just a financial analyst.

Right now Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) has a 3.59% trailing yield which is pretty good, it will probably be more than that this year but who knows.

Im still in RSX and may get out at any time but ill probably be in this for another 3 – 24 months at the least.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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Some low risk Mutual Funds that deliver 9 – 10% yearly backtested 10 to 15 years

Im sorry if this idea is not sexy enough for some but making a solid 9 – 10% yearly (a 5% to 6% dividend plus appreciation) is good in my books.  Your money is doubling in 7 years which is not bad http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72).

These 2 mutual funds are balanced funds and with no further ado here they are:

1) http://funds.ci.com/GeneratePDF.aspx?FSID=6803&Language=en which over the last 10 years has returned 9.85% annually as of March 4 2015 as found here http://funds.ci.com/Default.aspx?tab=LongTerm
2
http://funds.ci.com/GeneratePDF.aspx?FSID=686&Language=en this fund has returned 10.82% annually over 15 years as found http://funds.ci.com/Default.aspx?tab=LongTerm

As a note these funds may say “High Income” but do not confuse this with “High Yield Bonds” they do not have large exposure to that asset class.

These 2 funds pay a monthly dividend in the 5% to 6% range as they have exposure to high yielding value stocks, basically huge companies that pay generous dividends.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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A video about a Special Situations trade with 30% automatic upside but has some downsides

This trade is not in the opinion of the management/owner of this Blog TheValueSwan.com .

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A story about the author of this blog – How The Internet Has Leveled Business Forever

Prior to the early 1990s the investing business and investing in companies took a lot of work and mostly depended on connections.  Now that there is the Internet we can invest in the stock market easily, and knowledgeably, or we can invest in private companies or people from the developed world to the developing world with ease.

I got my start investing in the stock market in 2002 with the corporate Enron/Tyco scandals, I invested in Harley Davidson.  I did some research and the 100 year anniversary of Harley Davidson was coming up so I knew they would have a good year.  All this research was conducted through Google, the Harley Davidson website and quarterly/annual reports.  This investment did turn me a 30 – 40% gain if I remember correctly in a year or 2 period.  At this time the power of the Internet and specifically Google was not widely known.  Getting information that was powerful, reliable and pertinent was hard to come by before Google’s link popularity algorithm was developed.  Altavista, Excite, Yahoo and Netscape just did not reliably categorize there listings that well and this allowed an opening in Google.  You can garner this story in a few ways but the most important way is, brands or companies that you usually use can be very good to invest in if they go public.  It happened that in 2004 |Google went public and it returned 1000% in a 10 year period.  I did allocate $10,000 US to this investment but I thought the $30 billion valuation was a bit to expensive, a mistake I regret.   Though I had much success with my money at that time so it all evened out.  Now because I invest a lot more actively in public companies I run a blog where I try to help people at www.thevalueswan.com .  Back to the story you can also garner that superior brands make for good investments.  Warren Buffett who had lots of council from his partner Charlie Munger who gave him this idea once said “I prefer to invest in great brands at reasonable prices rather than good brands at great prices.”  This investment technique did return Charlie Munger (a billionaire) a 19.7% return over the life of his investment partnership before he met Warren Buffett.  Warren Buffett is now sporting a 20%ish yearly lifetime record over his investment career.  I do not only invest in public companies, I like to find brands and especially people to make them into solid businesses.

The Internet has allowed me to do this because of the flattening of the geographic curve I would like to say.  I started investing in people and brands in 2003 and has led me to great success even though it can be a disheartening experience at times.  Finding people on forums or through mutual interests or acquaintances can be a liberating experience that can bring forth fruitful returns.  Ive done it many times its just a matter of how you structure your arrangement.  Always get contracts that do not have to be so detailed but that prove ownership and have a track record.  For a time I did not do it for saddening results but Karma is a bitch and it always comes back.  Ive worked with people from various parts of the world and its exciting especially if you are in a 1st world county and can invest in a 2nd or 3rd world country.  Your money can go a lot farther but it can be risky and it can still be done even today in 2015.

That sums up a little adventure into the workings of what can be accomplished with the power of the Internet.  If you ever want to read some good investment tidbits, or rather ideas that can accomplish fruitful returns you can go to my blog at www.thevalueswan.com

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Sessions on Valuation, How do you really Value a Company? NYU Stern School Of Business

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Burger King same store sales up 3% yoy, Tim Hortons up 4% yoy – Owner – Restaurant Brands International – Up 7% today

Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Owner of Tim Hortons and Burger King just released its full year and 4th quater report here http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1488097/restaurant-brands-international-reports-full-year-and-fourth-quarter-2014-results and the stock has since rocked up 7% as of 11AM EST February 17 2015.  The stock has since rocketed up because of Burger King same store sales up 3% yoy, Tim Hortons up 4% yoy which is phenomenal.

Some analysts have been saying that QSR is going to be the best performing stock in the TSE this year and I agree with that assessment.

Here are the highlights to the full year and 4th quarter report

Full Year 2014 Highlights:

  • Tim Hortons (TH) comparable sales increased 3.1% and Burger King (BK) comparable sales increased 2.1%
  • Delivered 186 net restaurant growth (NRG) at TH and 705 NRG at BK
  • System-wide sales grew 6.6% at TH and 6.8% at BK in constant currency
  • TH Adjusted EBITDA grew 10.5% on an organic basis to $816 million
  • BK Adjusted EBITDA grew 11.5% on an organic basis to $726 million
  • Paid Burger King Worldwide Inc. dividends of $0.30 per share or approximately $106 million

Fourth Quarter 2014 Highlights:

  • TH comparable sales increased 4.1% and BK comparable sales increased 3.0%
  • Delivered 81 NRG at TH and 412 NRG at BK
  • System-wide sales grew 7.4% at TH and 7.7% at BK in constant currency
  • TH Adjusted EBITDA grew 10.2% on an organic basis to $209 million
  • BK Adjusted EBITDA grew 8.8% on an organic basis to $189 million

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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An investment for the decade Fairfax India Holdings – (FIH.U) going up possibly 10x in 10 years.

The guy that runs this is named Prem Watsa and is nicknamed the “Warren Buffett of Canada” as he has made consistantely great investments since near the beginning of his career at in 1985. Even in the 1 year chart for Fairfax Financial Holdings, the company is up 50%+ year over year.

He has recently introduced (about a week or 2 old) a fund which is essentially a stock/etf/mutual fund of India named Fairfax India Holdings () . Basically this fund solely invests in India a market where the average salary is $4000 US a year (Rougly $330 a month ). The East Indian market has a lot of room to grow and could potential go nuclear (go huge fast) because of President Modi.

President Modi has offered a huge amount of reform and will most likely get his reforms done as he has a huge majority. He has awarded people roles in his government based on merit and not political connections.

The savings rate in India is only 33% which is not that high for a developing 2nd world economy as found here but it is still pretty high and a lot higher than 1st world countries at around 1 – 15%.

Now back to Fairfax India Holdings. Presently they released at $1 billion market cap and will be investing in private as well as public companies, so they will buy parts or all of a company or they will buy securities like stocks or bonds.

It is very hard to lose money in India at the moment other than if its Fraud on the part of a partner. If you take a look at Mutual Funds such as Birla Sun Life ’95 Fund and Birla Sun Life Tax Relief ’96 both have 25%+ yearly returns since there inception in 1995 and 1996. Which means you could have made 80 to 180 times your money since inception.

Right now there is not much information on Fairfax India Holdings as it is extremely new and sometimes companies dont release good documentation till the 1st quarter of operations is done but granted that its run by Prem Watsa the man who runs Fairfax Financial Holdings and was Chairman and CEO since its inception.

Prem Watsa does have a CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst designation) which is the hardest designation to get in the financial field as hard as getting a Ph.D in Finance and he is only 64 years old. Furthermore he is worth $1.3 billion as he owns 10% of Fairfax Financial Holdings a $13 billion dollar corporation.

You will note that Fairfax Financial Holdings bought Blackberry in 2013 for $4.7 billion dollars. We will have to see if they made good money on this deal in the coming years but a stock appreciation of 52% year over year is pretty good.

We will have to wait and see if Fairfax India Holdings can make substantial returns much like how Fairfax Financial Holdings has, I believe it will and am invested.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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Cryptohedge.io – CFSassets – CFSgold – Market Making Bots – 20% to 50% yearly return? Maybe – Black Swan proof? Maybe

The bitshares ecosystem is on fire with the announcement that the development of a new DAC (Decentralized Autonomous Corporation) + Bitassets (Assets under the Bitshares SuperDAC/Brand), ie Cryptohedge.io and CFSassets is coming online.

Lets cut to the skinny, what is going on?  Basically Cryptohedge.io is releasing market making bots and is going to back it up with the asset of bitshares/bitgold and Gold Futures (the last one having counterparty risk)  Now dont get worried just yet about Gold futures having counterparty risk, it is a highly liquid and a multi-multi billion dollar market as you can see here http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold.html which shows a market of over 100,000 traded in the day (each contract found here http://futures.tradingcharts.com/specs/ is 100 ounces or roughly $120,000 US Dollars per contract which comes to over $12 billion dollars traded in the day (roughly $20 billion and just in the CME Group but whose counting really).

Now the negatives out of the way, is this actually a good investment?  Most likely yes because they are performing arbitrage in a market that has no real competition as of yet.  Furthermore, as long as there is a market they will be able to skim off a little bit to constantly increase there NAV (Net Asset Value).

How good can these bot/arbitrage mechanisms be in terms of profitability?  Well basically the best market making or arbitrage firm in the world which uses the power of mathematics and physics is https://www.rentec.com/Home.action?index=true .  The guy that started it James Simon is worth $14 billion dollars and is known as the “Quant King,” he really is.  With returns after commissions over 35% – 40% a year meaning hes making 45% – 55% a year.  It is true he is not just an arbitrager and that he uses the power of his mathematics University Ph.D teaching degree as well as trend following, special situations, and most likely high frequency trading (he is most likely doing this  in his alphabet soup of technique.)

Anyways sorry for getting off topic but if they dont get hit by a black swan and if the market for bitgold/bitcoingold/goldfuturesgold is big enough and more competitors dont come in (there is probably room for 2 – 4 big firms in the future).  We could see some serious gains, upwards of 20% a year.  Truth be told they may have a few 100 – 200% years and I may be wrong and every year for 10 years they could make 75%+ bringing there asset into the multi billions, much like Renaissance Technologies LLC $25 billion under management.   These guys could do it too, it will come down to there ability.  We will have to wait and see.

I will keep you updated with developments and you can follow me below on twitter or like my page on facebook to keep updated

You can read the Prospectus for CFSgold here http://cryptohedge.io/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Prospectus.pdf

 This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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