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An Investment I like: Shipping company A.P. Moller – Maersk (AMKBY)

ap moller maersk

First off here are the specifics

Market Cap: $22.04 Billion USD
Dividend Yield: 1.66% a year
52 Week Range per share: $9.24 – $18.00 (your buying it cheap at $10.14 presently)
PE: roughly 7*, they are worth $22 billion and they profit $4.5 billion before tax and $3 billon after tax.

Why do I like this company?

1) Its owned by a billionaire John Fredriksen http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Fredriksen hes worth $11 billion US Dollars.  So your getting someone proven.
2) Your getting for a company that is half the average PE ratio, market PE is 16 average, your getting it for 7.  Their website says http://investor.maersk.com/estimates.cfm 15 but if you look in their interim report http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-3GG91Y/3790933301x0x793512/16FE96BF-5938-441D-9DC6-6F79B6B88D61/Interim_Report_Q3_2014.pdf page 3 of 46 you  see they made $3 billion last year 2013.
3) Your getting paid to hold it a bit 1.66% a year
4) The shipping business has been out of favor for years look at the Baltic Dry Sea Index (the shipping cargo price indicator) http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm its substantially down from 2009, roughly 13,000 to 1,200 this is not  a typo.  So your buying the asset cheap, eventually its going to go up again.
5) They are not just in the cargo business of owning ships, they also own ports and have many lines such as
Maersk Line – Shipping oil and other goods
APM Terminals – A huge port business
Maersk Oil – Oil production

Basically your getting a beaten down asset because oil is at $55 dollars roughly a barrel.  If oil heads to $70 Maersk is going to be a $15 dollar stock at the least, that means your going to see an upside of 50% in probably 1 – 3 years which means your making 14% compounded a year which is good.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

 ap moller maersk

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Is a 19% Interest Rate on Russian Government Bonds a good Investment? YES

cb65e13b-f19b-4bdf-9a3d-cada3ef4bc2a

Think about it Russia is going through a similar state that the United States went through in 1980, sky high inflation, high government expenditures and war (the United States I believe was in War with the Soviets in Afghanistan and the United States was in war with the Soviets in the Cold War).  Also US productivity growth was not the highest in 1980 because we were just about to be on the cusp of the Technology Revolution, whereby the Russians are in an oil problem right now so they have not low productivity but big problems (low productivity growth is a big problem.    But in the 1980s when the US had 15%+ interest rates did they come out on top and was that (the bond market) a really good fixed investment, yes!

Also sanctions because of the war with Ukraine have caused Russias USD (US Dollar) position to begin to go down.  The Russians are having to use there public pension fund money to backstop the currency system by using some of the money to fund the banks in Russia.  This is all not a sustainable path and the Russian government needs $70 dollar oil.

But lets step back for a second.  The Russians have $420 billion reserves (link: http://cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/default.aspx?Prtid=mrrf_m ) and they have a resource rich country.   They have low government debt (as much as 1/5th) as the US in a percentage terms of the economy, the US is 100% debt to GDP, the Russians are like 20%.  So is there a prospect of Russian bond default?  No of course not, they have a lot of Cash and Assets and low debt.  Does this mean though that the Russian rouble will stay weakened for a time, probably but will the price of oil eventually go back up?  YES of course, we are going to need oil for a long time to come, Tesla (TSLA) is not going to solve the oil problem anytime soon.

Is a 19% interest rate a good deal and a good bet for you bond portfolio?   Yes

Is there a risk of loss to this or any investment?  Yes

Is there a chance the Russian Ruble will weaken and there will be some currency loss to your investment?  Yes but will you come out better in 10 years if your in a Russian 10 year bond, probably.

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

 

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United States Cumulative Rent Growth (GRAPHIC)

cumulative rent growth Jan 2 2014

cumulative rent growth Jan 2 2014

 

I believe this graphic from Zillow is good just in the sense that it says there is a “sizable increase” in rental burdens for people this year.   Did San Francisco really go up 13% last year?  Probably not but 5 – 7% is reasonable, be skeptical but be aware that the trend is up.

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Bitshares the Financial Atomic Bomb Technology – How to Imagine It

Imagine a financial exchange that acts as something like a bank where by you put your money there, you get interest to hold your money there, you can then pay like a debit card your purchases of goods, and its like a financial exchange where you can trade currencies, bonds, and stocks. There are other exciting developments happening like a decentralized p2p lending exchange so you will be able to find lenders for that car or mortgage. We are also going to be a decentralized house title exchange whereby people will be able to register there property on the blockchain, we are figuring it out, stay tuned, Dan, aka bytemaster is the next Bill Gates, watch it. Also we are changing the way people vote, no more corrupt politicians, in the end we are looking to bring back direct democracy and greek democracy. Lastly there are many opportunities to be your own “DAC” like Bitshares Super DAC, we envision a future where people run a computer at home and its like the Matrix whereby it provides there living standard through some sort of business on a(the) blockchain, whether it is a p2p lending small institution (you being the institution) or through your own file sharing exchange using the blockchain making the apple itunes of file sharing block chains. Anything we are it, why anything when you can bitshare? Bitshares is also a financial opportunity but as anything there is a chance of loss.

For more information go to www.bitshares.org
To set up a exchange wallet go to www.bter.comlogo

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The Financial Atomic Bomb Technology that will change the world

bitshares-pts-425x225

Tell people on facebook about this post.  To help people who need need/want money.

Going from 1.6 cents to $1 dollar (and beyond probably $1000 each too) like bitcoin did (bitcoins went from 1 cent to $1000 dollars in 5 years (This will happen faster though)).  Now why?

Instant transactions (bitcoins takes 15 – 25 minutes)
Asset Exchange (You can play the currency, stock market, and etc through it)
BitUSD the force of gravity.
A currency that pays you interest to hold.
It Appreciates in Value

It is BitSharesX, bitshares.org.  Why?  Because it has features bitcoins does not have, significant features such as instant transactions (so it can be like Paypal, Visa or Mastercard).  Together these 3 payment systems process $4 TRILLION (trillion) dollars a year).  This is significant as if someone wants to send it to someone else with bitcoins (which each is worth $500 dollars) it takes 15 – 20 minutes.  How then will they be able to process transactions at Wal-Mart (any store). This shows the top cryptocurrencies http:/www./coinmarketcap.com/ (bitshares is 5th in value with $53 million (1.6 cents each).  While Bitcoins is 1st with $4.3 BILLION in value ($300 dollars each).  Bitshares is 6th in volume with $100,000 a day and sometimes $1 million a day which is significant.  While Bitcoins only has $6 million in daily transaction volume.

What else does bitsharesx have?  The Official Asset Exchange.  Why is this significant.  It will be like the NYSE (US Stock Exchange), Nasdaq (US Technology Stock Exchange) this means that people will be able to play the market like buying Google stock through this.

But what else.

You can own US dollars, and within a few weeks Chinese Yuan (Chinese dollars meaning there will be a big demand from China).  And later EVERY currency in the world.

Furthermore you get interest for holding bitshares.  Meaning its like a currency but it pays you money by holding it. ge or to trade US dollar currency everyone has to have subs of bitshares, like bitUSD, or bitGold, or bitYUAN (Chinese currency).

The Chinese like this a lot.  They are the early adopters but its for everyone, everyone is getting into it.

www.coinmarketcap.com this shows you 450+ crypto currencies.  And Bitshares is 5th  while it is just 4 month old.  Its closest competitor (enemy) is NXT.

Here is some history to put everything into perspective.

5 years ago in 2009 Bitcoins was released.  It was at 1 cent.  You could call it cryptocurrency 1.0 like how Google search engine is Web 1.0.  Then became Facebook (social network) which is Web 2.0.  BitSharesX is crypto-currency 2.0 how so?  Due to its interactive new features and thus Web 3.0?

Does bitsharesX (bitshares.org for more info) have competitors.  Yes NXT.  But they are way behind in terms that they do not have the instant transactions and it may not work for them.  Furthermore there is 3 months before they say they will release instant transactions and there asset exchange is ineffective as well as they do not pay interest on holding their currency.  (As of editing future this article in January 1 2015 NXT never released instant transactions, this article was wrote in September 2014)

Now how do you get it?  That is one of the reasons everyone does not have it yet.  Go to https://www.coinbase.com/ if you are in the US.  If you are other places go to www.bter.com .  Try to get some.  Get bitcoins first than transfer them into Bitshares, that is the secret.

This is a huge secret.

This is the atomic bomb of the 21st century.  This is like World War 2, it is an arms race to win the war.  Do your part by promoting BitSharesX go to www.bitshares.org to read about it.  Get involved go to https://www.bitsharestalk.org/ sign up.  For further developments and the cutting edge information go to the General Discussion on the forum or here https://www.bitsharestalk.org/index.php?board=5.0.

Remember the big winners in the stock market, usually forget about there stocks for a while (a year, 6 months, 5 years) and dont look at the daily movement, but plan the game if you want (I am a financial advisor and suggest dont)

All the best.

Live long and prosper.bitshares-pts-425x225

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Reasons for US Home Sales Being Down Since 2008

TOP_US Homeownership Rate Logan Dec 28 2014

As you can tell from the graph Average Wage Growth has been muted at 2.0% and Real Median Household Income has went down from $56,000 USD to $52,000 USD from 2009 to 2014, a roughly 7% drop. Furthermore, employment as a function of population (a ratio) has went down meaning the unemployment rate is a lot higher than it seems or rather the baby boomers are retiring resulting in a higher proportion (lower rate) of people employed as a percentage of population. These 3 dynamics coupled with a real estate bust that saw prices drop considerably (but now that are picking up and have stabilized) has resulted in a muted real estate market in terms of Mortgage Purchase Application Index, Mortgages being taken out by people and homes being bought.

Bottom_Existing Home Sales 2000 to 2014 Dec 28 2014

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Terms and Conditions

This material has been prepared by Thevalueswan.com . This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Thevalueswan.com , other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Thevalueswan.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Thevalueswan.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

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